An Increasingly Difficult Outlook for Mayor Mike Halfacre's Campaign

 | March 8, 2010  


Two new endorsements today in NJ-12, Save Jerseyans.

Incoming Middlesex County Republican chairman Sam Thompson has endorsed Scott Sipprelle in that congressional district's heated GOP primary. Thompson is also an "establishment" state assemblyman, so his endorsement may signal a continued erosion of support for Mayor Mike Halfacre who, through most of 2009, stood alone in the hunt to challenge Rep. Rush Holt (D). 

Halfacre's campaign manager Tom Fitzsimmons responded later in the afternoon with his own press release touting Tea Party endorsement number five for Fair Haven's chief executive. The Jersey Shore Tea Party has a Facebook group with 62 members. The true size and influence of this particular organization is, as with most of the tea party groups, undetermined. 

Which endorsement would you rather have heading into the March 27th Middlesex convention?

Indeed, it now seems likely that Scott Sipprelle will capture the county lines in Mercer and Middlesex Counties. The Middlesex convention is very interesting because it's open to any registered Republican in the county willing to pay the $10 credential fee; however, the advantage has to go to Sipprelle since he has 1) superior resources to credential his people and 2) he's locked up the support of the popular next chairman. And if both counties go Scott's way, it will be extremely interesting to see how long Mayor Mike can hold on to the elected officials supporting him in his home county of Monmouth. Even if he does successfully defend his home turf and Monmouth stays with Halfacre, Sipprelle then has the financial ability to use paid media and poach votes behind enemy lines. April 15th is looming larger and larger for everyone trying to handicap this campaign!

In the final analysis, Save Jerseyans, primary politics is all about the tension between grassroots momentum and structural advantages. With three months left to go, Mayor Mike doesn't seem to have enough of the former to overcome Sipprelle's growing control over the later, and he's rapidly running out of time to close the gap.



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Comments

  • Monday, March 08, 2010 3:30 PM Mike Halfwit wrote:
    He should just drop out and save everyone the trouble. Watching him commit political suicide may be amusing but it's not really constructive for the party.

    Give it up, Mike. It's almost check mate time.
    Reply to this
    1. Monday, March 08, 2010 3:35 PM Stupid Sipprelle Tricks wrote:
      Rooney is too focused on fundraising. Mike is knocking doors, meeting with people, and making the contacts he needs to win a primary. He's also still got a ton of legislators and officials on his side.
      Reply to this
      1. Monday, March 08, 2010 7:35 PM King of Wishful Thinking wrote:
        Too focused on money?

        Sipprelle's money talks. Halfacre's bullshit walks.
        Reply to this
  • Monday, March 08, 2010 4:09 PM Punxutawny Phil wrote:
    Mike may be "knocking doors," but he's not getting any response. Sipprelle doesn't exactly seem to be twiddling his thumbs. Mike is toast.
    Reply to this
  • Monday, March 08, 2010 5:47 PM Anonymous wrote:
    We need to start pulling together as a party, get behind a single candidate, and stop the backbiting if we are going to have any chance against Holt. Whatever reservations we may have about Scott, he is by far the more electable candidate in the general election. Mike should do the right thing for the party by withdrawing and endorsing Scott so that we can all start focusing on November.
    Reply to this
    1. Monday, March 08, 2010 6:27 PM Rick Ambrosia wrote:
      Sipprelle is more electable why? Money?
      Reply to this
  • Monday, March 08, 2010 7:24 PM Anonymous wrote:
    In my view, Scott has a better personal and professional story than Mike, he's a fresh face and not a professional politician (in a year in which people are fed up with politicians), and, frankly, he's more likeable than Mike with a broader appeal to the general electorate th Mike. Of course, Scott also has the money that will be vital to defeating Holt. Money alone won't be enough for Scott to win, but Mike's lack of money would be enough for Mike to lose.
    Reply to this
  • Monday, March 08, 2010 8:48 PM Anonymous wrote:
    There were hundreds of people at three different meetings of the JSTP group. It attracts at least that many to every monthly meeting. Don't sell us short. Halfacre was great at each meeting. Read about it at Right in Jersey
    Reply to this
    1. Monday, March 08, 2010 11:03 PM Matt Rooney wrote:
      My intention certainly isn't to deride the tea party movement. Not at all.

      However, that movement is, as of yet, an unproven force in Garden State politics. Can it push a worthy candidate across the finish line in a close primary? Quite possibly. But can tea partiers defeat a multi-millionaire with establishment backing? We shall see soon enough.
      Reply to this
  • Monday, March 08, 2010 11:03 PM Tom wrote:
    It matters not how many tea party groups endorse anyone. Party regulars vote in primaries plus there are just as many grassroots Republicans who do not belong to any of these groups. They know the real Mike Halfacre, the arrogant politician who would not let a local church sponsor the Family First organization to help families hit hard by this economy get back on their feet. He refused to hear their pleas, and adamantly would not help these innocent people because he did not want them in his neighborhood. Combine that with his Boy Scout ouster from the schools, and you don't have someone endearing to the greater legions of grassroots folks. He is not Congressional material by a longshot.
    Reply to this
  • Monday, March 08, 2010 11:46 PM Dao Fox wrote:
    If Halfacre has strong grassroots support, what is stopping them from turning out at the Middlesex Convention? As I understand it, any registered Republican can be a delegate. Are these tea party groups centered only in Monmouth County? Are they not registered Republicans. If Halfacre was this grassroots, conservative superstar I highly doubt he would be in trouble right now, even with a well-financed opponent. Its more likely Halfacre is simply not a good candidate and Republicans aren't convinced he can beat Holt. We'll have to see March 27th.
    Reply to this
    1. Tuesday, March 09, 2010 9:51 PM Tom wrote:
      Through the years, Halfacre never participated in any grassroots movements for other candidates. So to say he has "grassroots support" is very misleading. What he has is the support of self-appointed tea party 'leaders' basking in their newly-found notoriety and power who themselves may have never participated in any grassroots efforts before either. The two factions...grassroots and tea party... while not exclusive of one another, are definitely not synonymous.
      Reply to this
  • Tuesday, March 09, 2010 7:14 PM Anonymous wrote:
    Halfacre has been collecting a state pension for about 5 yrs I believe...isnt this what Christie is trying to stop
    Reply to this
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