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• Wednesday, November 11, 2009 12:28 PM Harry wrote:
  Have to disagree on this one Rooney. There is a difference between toppling a wildly unpopular governor and a representative that is pretty well liked and respected in his district. I don't think the swing back in the conservative direction will be enough in this case.
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  1. Wednesday, November 11, 2009 12:36 PM Matt Rooney wrote:
     You could be right. 2009 turnout won't necessarily translate to the midterms, and November 2010 is a long way off. However, if the political climate stays on the same trajectory as it is today, then "Congressman Halfacre" is entirely possible.
     
     The moral of the story is that a Halfacre victory can't be ruled out. He "can" beat Rush Holt, and conservatives shouldn't waste an historic opportunity to rescue the 12th from Holt's far-left representation.
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• Wednesday, November 11, 2009 1:42 PM Mike P wrote:
  Is it possible for Halfacre to win? Yes, but I don't like this analysis for two reasons.
  
  As someone who knows the 12th district, (my district) I agree with the Harry who noted the difference between voting for an unpopular incumbent governor and a member of the House.
  
  Furthermore on this point is that the district is filled with voters who pay exorbitant property taxes but for whatever reason tend to lean liberal (ex/ my hometown of Marlboro, Manalapan, Holmdel, Middletown, Rumson,Old Bridge etc.). When it came to this election, these voters suddenly broke overwhelmingly against Corzine on the issue or property taxes. But you'll notice that these voters also voted for Obama, they voted for Kerry, and they've consistently voted for Holt over the last few cycles. This tells me they are sick of NJ Democrats, but still like the national democrat party.
  The District as a whole voted for Obama, Kerry, Gore and Holt as well.
  
  The second reason I don't like this analysis is that NJ 12 maybe more than any other district in the state, splits towns. Its not just Trenton. Freehold, Marlboro, Manalapan, Middletown, Old Bridge and others are split between the 12th and the 6th or the 4th, so just lumping in the municipal totals from the governor's race is misleading.
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  1. Wednesday, November 11, 2009 2:12 PM Matt Rooney wrote:
     Your second point is the most valid, but from what I could tell, most of the "split" towns are Democrat municipalities (like Trenton).
     
     I'd need a lot of time and more info to do a more thorough analysis, but that doesn't necessarily hurt Halfacre.
     
     I'm willing to update this post if one of my Save Jerseyans wants to add more data. Again-- I offer a disclaimer in the original post, as this was simply meant to demonstrate how credible a Halfacre challenge could be.
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     1. Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:03 PM Mike P wrote:
        The only way to do an accurate analysis would be to go ward by ward in the split towns, and that is just way more work than I care to undertake... but furthermore the other inherent problem stands, you simply cannot compare a race for governor to a house race, especially one where the congressman is generally liked and the governor is wildly unpopular.
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        1. Thursday, November 12, 2009 3:00 AM Matt Rooney wrote:
           Generally liked? I don't think Adler has much of a profile at all. The generic ballot will be a more accurate indicator of Adler's strength heading into next year.
           
           If the current turnout model holds (indies and Republicans more motivated than Dems), Adler is in deep trouble.
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• Wednesday, November 11, 2009 10:27 PM FreedomFighter wrote:
  Matt,
  
  Dont let the naysayers throw you off your initial analysis..you are absolutely correct that this election is a game changer and shows a roadmap for Halfacre to beat Holt.
  
  Some things the naysayers fail to take into account:
  A) Holt has managed until recently to portray himself as a non-ideological, wonky congressman and hide his far left voting record. Whether its been circumstances, the election of Obama, or a predilection toward career suicide, he has taken the absolute far left position on matters large and small this year.
  Halfacre is going to be the first candidate since Spadea in 04 to run a real campaign against Holt. He's already got Tom Fitzsimmons, who helped Jen Beck take down Ellen Karcher, as his campaign manager and Adam Geller, who just did Chris Christie's polling, as his pollster. This is not going to be a rinky dink campaign.
  C)Halfacre was an early supporter of the Governor-elect and you have to believe that the fundraising opportunities for Halfacre with a Republican in the Governors office are very good.
  
  So lets see...you have a Congressman with a voting record way more liberal than his constituents think it is and a well funded, professional campaign ready willing and able to point out that record...in a district which just rejected an incumbent governor for the same tax and spend, government intervention into your life policies supported by that Congressman.
  
  If I was Rush Holt, I would be very, very worried. And I think he is.
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  1. Thursday, November 12, 2009 10:56 AM Anonymous wrote:
     GO HALFACRE!!!!!!!!!
     WE STAND BEHIND YOU
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