CHRISTIE SURGE: New Q Survey Shows Christie Up +2 in 7-Point Polling Swing!

Matt Rooney | November 2, 2009

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Following a new PPP survey and Neighborhood Research poll showing Chris leading  +6 and +7 points respectively, a new Q poll has Chris up +2.... a 7-point swing in one week!

From Quinnipiac University Polling:


In the see-saw New Jersey Governor's race, Republican challenger Christopher Christie has 42percent to Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine's 40 points, with 12 percent for independent candidateChristopher Daggett, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percentremain undecided.

This compares to a 43 - 38 percent Gov. Corzine lead, with 13 percent for Daggett, in anOctober 28 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Among Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they might change their mind: 39 percent sayCorzine is their second choice, while 29 percent say Christie is number two.

Only 10 percent of Christie voters and 13 percent of Corzine backers say they mightchange their mind.

Corzine leads 77 - 6 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 12 percent forDaggett. Christie leads 78 - 10 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and47 - 32 percent among independent voters, with 17 percent for Daggett.

"Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election," said Maurice Carroll,director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

From October 27 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,533 New Jersey likelyvoters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinionsurveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a publicservice and for research.For more data or RSS feed- www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, orfollow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates wereJon Corzine the Democrat, Christopher Christie the Republican, and ChristopherDaggett the independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today,do you lean more toward Corzine, Christie, or Daggett? (If Already Voted q1) Didyou vote for Corzine, Christie or Daggett? This table includes "Leaners".

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom



Corzine              40%    10%    77%    32%    36%    44%
Christie             42     78      6     47     47     37
Daggett              12      9     12     17     12     11
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      3      6      4      4      8



                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore



Corzine              53%    46%    28%    42%    29%
Christie             30     37     58     35     52
Daggett               8     11     11     13     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      7      3      8      4






1a. (If candidate choice given q1, excludes already voted) Is your mind made up,or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.............
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom



Made up              85%    88%    85%    81%    85%    85%
Might change         15     12     14     19     15     15
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -



                     CAND CHOICE Q1....
                     Corz   Chris  Dagg



Made up              86%    90%    61%
Might change         13     10     38
DK/NA                 -      -      -






1b. (If voting for Daggett q1) Who is your second choice for Governor?

                     DAGGETT VOTERS Q1



Corzine              39%
Christie             29
Someone else          7
No one/wldn't vote   17
DK/NA                 8






2. Is your opinion of - Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven'tyou heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom



Favorable            41%    70%    12%    42%    45%    36%
Unfavorable          40     13     66     42     38     41
Hvn't hrd enough     16     15     20     13     13     19
REFUSED               4      2      2      4      4      4



                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore



Favorable            35%    34%    49%    36%    55%
Unfavorable          41     45     33     42     32
Hvn't hrd enough     23     18     14     17      9
REFUSED               2      3      5      5      4






3. Is your opinion of - Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heardenough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom



Favorable            39%    14%    70%    30%    37%    41%
Unfavorable          53     83     19     64     56     49
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      6      3      3      5
REFUSED               4      1      6      3      4      5



                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore



Favorable            50%    45%    30%    38%    28%
Unfavorable          40     47     68     48     63
Hvn't hrd enough      8      4      -      7      4
REFUSED               2      4      3      8      5






4. Is your opinion of - Christopher Daggett favorable, unfavorable or haven'tyou heard enough about him?

                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom



Favorable            23%    21%    20%    29%    25%    21%
Unfavorable          17     25     12     15     20     15
Hvn't hrd enough     57     52     66     54     53     62
REFUSED               3      2      3      2      2      3



                                          Philly
                     Urban  SbUrbn ExUrbn land   Shore



Favorable            22%    21%    22%    20%    28%
Unfavorable          19     16     26     13     15
Hvn't hrd enough     57     61     48     63     55
REFUSED               2      2      3      4      3


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Posted by Matt Rooney at Monday, November 02, 2009 8:31 AM
Categories: uncategorized

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  • Monday, November 02, 2009 9:03 AM ThomNJ wrote:
    Very confusing - or should I say confused voters. If one is backing Daggett, it would seem that one is unhappy with the current admin - so why on Earth would one's SECOND choice be the problem one wants to vote out? Faulty logic.
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