Do You Support Trenton's A.C. Takeover? 
ANOTHER New Poll: Christie Leads Corzine by 5% in Fairleigh Dickinson Poll
| September 1, 2009
It's a ridiculously busy day for New Jersey pollsters (and the political science nerds who love them).
Last night, Save Jersey was the first to tell you that Quinnipiac University's latest public survey recorded a 10-
point Christie lead (link) over Carla Katz's ex-boyfriend (a.k.a. Governor Jon Corzine). That's a 4-point improvement for Chris in the face of Corzine's well-financed smear campaign. The Quinnipiac poll utilizes a very large sample -- 1,600+ likely voters -- making it the most popular Garden State political barometer for insider election handicappers. It's bad news bears for Corzine, Save Jerseyans. He's running out of time to recover.
Another poll is also out this morning, this time from Fairleigh Dickinson University's Public Mind polling division. Their results reflect a more modest 5% lead for Chris (47% to 42% on the head-to-head). However, the Fairleigh Dickinson University poll uses a substantially smaller sample than the popular Quinnipiac poll (only 715 likely voters statewide). Take that information for what you will.
Key findings? Here we go:
1. Corzine is still enduring significant base-related turmoil:
“The most important difference between these two candidates right now is in the support each one gets from his own party’s voters,” said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. Among Republicans, Christie is preferred by 85%. Meanwhile, Corzine gets the support of 73% of Democrats. “That is an improvement from his earlier, tepid support, but still lagging,” said Woolley."
2. Corzine's "vitals" (job approval, NJ right track/wrong track numbers, etc.) are still in the Drumthwacket toilet:
"The governor has not convinced Democrats that the state is headed in the right direction: about half (49%) say it’s on the wrong track while 38% say it is headed the right way. Among Democrats, 29% have an unfavorable view of their nominee, compared to 12% of Republicans who have an unfavorable view of their nominee. Just 8% of Republicans have a favorable view of Corzine, but 19% of Democrats have a favorable view of Christie and 18% say they’ll vote for him. Among all voters, 37% say their view of Corzine is favorable, while 54% say their impression is unfavorable. Similarly 37% approve of the job he’s doing and 52% say they disapprove."
3. Corzine can't seem to connect with New Jerseyans on a personal level:
"He only continues to lag on the question of which candidate better “understands the concerns of the average person.” He loses to Christie 30%-43% on that measure."
Throughout today's news cycle, you can definitely count on the Corzine campaign and anti-Christie news outlets to focus on this FDU poll instead of the more-favorable (and superiorly statistically sound) Quinnipiac poll.
Let them -- it doesn't matter. Nothing Corzine has done or said to hurt Chris has mattered much at all ... that's the big story from our latest round of polling, folks. The fact remains that Chris is still leading in the RCP average and remains comfortably outside of the margin of error. The two major non-partisan pollsters in N.J. -- Quinnipiac and Rasmussen -- found big Christie leads heading into Labor Day Weekend. When's the last time a Republican pulled that off? Furthermore, Jon Corzine is trailing with only nine weeks to go until Election Day; he hasn't led in a single opinion poll, public or private, since mid-January '09. Perhaps most importantly, the fundamentals of this race are stubbornly consistent in EVERY SINGLE POLL. A solid majority of New Jerseyans continue to disapprove of Jon Corzine's job performance and the direction their state is headed. That's the ballgame.
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