Jersey's Top Lawman Denies 
Christie LG "Race": Move Sheriff Kim Guadagno to "Likely Choices"
Baba O'Riley | July 2, 2009
In my last post about analyzing Chris Christie's LG possibilities, I had investigated Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno as a pick, and then came to the conclusion that she was an "unlikely choice".
This was based off strictly my assumption that two law enforcement type candidates on one ticket would be a non-starter. While impressing many, Sheriff Guadagno is still in her first term and has no elected office experience before her term as Sheriff, although she was a Monmouth Beach Commissioner.
It appears however, that the magic 8 ball of Baba may be a bit dusty. Because of recent speculation courtesy of PolitickerNJ, More Monmouth Musings, and some well placed insider sources - let's move Sheriff Guadagno to the "likely choices" column.
Attribute the rising stock of Guadagno to her personality and her ability to win and fundraise in the toughest of races. In 2007 she was heavely contested by a popular Belmar former police cheif named Jack Hill, who was widely expected to win the race for Sheriff. She suprised pundits, polls, and others with a hard fought win that showcased her gritty campaign skills. Art from More Monmouth Musings describes her as "tough without being derisive" and notes she has a "genuinely friendly and humble good nature" with "keen intellect."
Christie has already suprised a few with the naming of Conservative Assemblyman Jay Webber as the new State GOP Chair. While the typical names mentioned for LG have consisted of Diane Allen or Kathleen Donovan, it would not be a complete shock to see Christie "shake it up" and go with a dark horse pick like Guadagno. Because of her implication of the 287 (g) program, she appeals well to the more conservative base of the NJ GOP and those who supported Lonegan in the primary. They believe she is a strong conservative, although I'm still not sure how anyone can actually determine her ideology on issues outside of law enforcement.
A Guadagno pick could turn the ticket into the ultimate "Trenton Outsider" statement and Chris could easily run a campaign against the nature of Trenton, as Corzine is very likely to go with a state legislator for LG (COUGH Weinberg COUGH).
It would also deliver a huge plurality out of the shore area and Monmouth County for Christie, something that could help him given that it's likely the race will be close in North Jersey, specifically Bergen County.
The movement of Sheriff Guadagno to the likely choices leaves the LG standings as so:
Likely Choices: Beck, Bramnick, Guadagno, Donovan, Allen, LoBiondo, Kyrillos
Unlikely Choices: Ferguson, Schundler, Leiter, Baroni, Soaries, Handlin (Baba's Wildcard pick), and Cunningham (Baba's Wildcard pick #2)
Still unsure: Leonard Coleman
With the conservative fallout over his vote for the cap and trade bill, look for Congressman LoBiondo to wind up in the unlikely choices area. It's likely that hardcore conservatives will groan about Chris's pick anyway (especially if its Allen or Donovan), but the anger level directed towards LoBiondo right now by the right wing is at very high levels and Christie may want to avoid that.
For more check out parts one and two of my analysis.
In my last post about analyzing Chris Christie's LG possibilities, I had investigated Monmouth County Sheriff Kim Guadagno as a pick, and then came to the conclusion that she was an "unlikely choice".
This was based off strictly my assumption that two law enforcement type candidates on one ticket would be a non-starter. While impressing many, Sheriff Guadagno is still in her first term and has no elected office experience before her term as Sheriff, although she was a Monmouth Beach Commissioner.
It appears however, that the magic 8 ball of Baba may be a bit dusty. Because of recent speculation courtesy of PolitickerNJ, More Monmouth Musings, and some well placed insider sources - let's move Sheriff Guadagno to the "likely choices" column.
Attribute the rising stock of Guadagno to her personality and her ability to win and fundraise in the toughest of races. In 2007 she was heavely contested by a popular Belmar former police cheif named Jack Hill, who was widely expected to win the race for Sheriff. She suprised pundits, polls, and others with a hard fought win that showcased her gritty campaign skills. Art from More Monmouth Musings describes her as "tough without being derisive" and notes she has a "genuinely friendly and humble good nature" with "keen intellect."
Christie has already suprised a few with the naming of Conservative Assemblyman Jay Webber as the new State GOP Chair. While the typical names mentioned for LG have consisted of Diane Allen or Kathleen Donovan, it would not be a complete shock to see Christie "shake it up" and go with a dark horse pick like Guadagno. Because of her implication of the 287 (g) program, she appeals well to the more conservative base of the NJ GOP and those who supported Lonegan in the primary. They believe she is a strong conservative, although I'm still not sure how anyone can actually determine her ideology on issues outside of law enforcement.
A Guadagno pick could turn the ticket into the ultimate "Trenton Outsider" statement and Chris could easily run a campaign against the nature of Trenton, as Corzine is very likely to go with a state legislator for LG (COUGH Weinberg COUGH).
It would also deliver a huge plurality out of the shore area and Monmouth County for Christie, something that could help him given that it's likely the race will be close in North Jersey, specifically Bergen County.
The movement of Sheriff Guadagno to the likely choices leaves the LG standings as so:
Likely Choices: Beck, Bramnick, Guadagno, Donovan, Allen, LoBiondo, Kyrillos
Unlikely Choices: Ferguson, Schundler, Leiter, Baroni, Soaries, Handlin (Baba's Wildcard pick), and Cunningham (Baba's Wildcard pick #2)
Still unsure: Leonard Coleman
With the conservative fallout over his vote for the cap and trade bill, look for Congressman LoBiondo to wind up in the unlikely choices area. It's likely that hardcore conservatives will groan about Chris's pick anyway (especially if its Allen or Donovan), but the anger level directed towards LoBiondo right now by the right wing is at very high levels and Christie may want to avoid that.
For more check out parts one and two of my analysis.
I am not sure how well known she is in Monmouth County. It's not a high profile position. I would move her back to a dark horse.
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Beck, Bramnick, Guadagno, Donovan, Allen, LoBiondo, and Kyrillos? Ugh. Not a single fiscal conservative in the bunch. I'll say right now: If Christie picks that hack Donovan or that cap-and-trade supporting Socialist LoBiondo, he can officially kiss my vote goodbye.
I'm still waiting. Good pick to head the NJ GOP head, but what are you going to do as Governor? Are you going to talk about how you'll reduce taxes and cut spending, or are you still going to focus on where you stand on abortion and gun control? Social issues are not only irrelevant to the people struggling to make ends meet in this state, but I think most of us know that a Governor has no control over a lot of them. Come up with a good solid fiscal plan (which Kean and Whitman failed to do), and you'll win over the independents and skeptics. Continue to lollygag and run a race like Forrester and Zimmer, and you'll lose, even against an unpopular incumbent.
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Thanks for your support and informative post.
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