By Matt Rooney | August 26, 2008

Gallup's latest numbers are in, and the results will have Senator Obama's campaign staff shaking in their Birkenstocks.

Gallup's daily tracking poll shows a 46% to 44% McCain lead over Barack Obama. If true, this means that the Joe Biden announcement actually gave Obama a negative bounce. Ouch. The Biden pick was poor for several reasons, but the biggest problem with Biden is that he emphasizes Obama's weaknesses while doing little to add excitement or energy to the ticket. The selection of a 60-something career senator works against Obama's entire "change" message. And whose idea was it to make Biden's speech an angry, fire-and-brimstone populist tirade? Dick Cheney worked in 2000 because he compensated for Bush's perceived political immaturity. Biden is coming across more like a crazy uncle you try to hide at family parties.

It's worth remembering that a one-day two-point lead is statistically insignificant unto itself. However, the Gallup poll's trend over the last month demonstrates significant movement in the race:





What's happening here? Put succinctly, McCain's increasingly savvy campaign machine has come into its own just in time to exploit costly Obama blunders (the Euro-rock tour, the Biden pick, snubbing Hillary, etc). The McCain campaign has successfully focused the race on Obama's questionable biography and, consequently, Obama is floundering badly.

This race if far from won, but Senator McCain has every reason to smile today.